|
|
Browse by Tags
All Tags » Bespoke Investment Group (RSS)
-
 Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Oil moved below $90 for a brief period of time this morning, and below we provide a price chart of the commodity in 2008. As one point, oil was up 51% year to date, but now it is down 6.33%. After breaking below its lows from mid September, the technicals suggest further declines are still to come for oil. click to enlarge Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Yesterday's release of short interest as of mid-September showed that overall levels of short selling remained nearly unchanged from the end of August. Given the SEC rule changes announced since the middle of September, you can expect these figures to show a big change when the figures for the end of the month are released. One stock that did show a large change, however, was Constellation Energy (CEG). From the end of August through the middle of September, short interest in the stock increased by over 400% from 1.4% to over 6% of the stock's float. As shown in the chart below, while the stock of CEG has been in a downtrend all year, it started to crater on September 15th, right after short interest spiked. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
The difference between the front-month and next-month contract for crude is at a whopping 12%! The front-month contract rolls over today, so a massive short squeeze seems to be taking place. As shown in the second chart below, while very uncommon, this kind of spread has happened in the past. Just another crazy data-point in a crazy market. click to enlarge Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Crude oil was just halted on the NYMEX after trading up over 10%. Today's gain, if it holds, would be the 8th largest one-day gain going back to at least 1986. click to enlarge Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Below we highlight our trading range charts of ten major commodities. The green shading in the charts represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. Moves above or below the green area are considered extremely overbought and oversold. After experiencing serious declines for the past two months, some commodities have bounced back nicely over the last week, while others haven't seen much of a pop. After trading more than 2 standard deviations below its 50-day, oil has staged a double-digit rally, and is on the verge of breaking its downtrend if it closes above $108 today. Natural gas, on the other hand, hasn't rallied at all, but it has stopped going down at least. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Somewhat lost in the mix today is oil's rise of $6, back above $100. As shown in the chart below, however, the commodity is still in a solid downtrend. For oil to break its downtrend, it needs to move and close above the $108-$109 level. 
Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Earlier we noted that not one stock in the S&P 500 Energy sector was trading above its 50-day moving average. Below we highlight the individual stocks in the sector and where they're trading relative to their 50-days. As shown, Massey Energy (MEE) is the furthest below its 50-day at -47.3%. MEE is followed by NOV (-33.6%), CNX (-32.5%), NBR (-31.8%), and COG (-27%). Tesoro (TSO), Valero (VLO) and Sunoco (SUN) are down the most year to date, but they're currently trading at some of the closest levels to their 50-days in the sector. Exxon Mobil (XOM), which makes up nearly a third of the entire sector, is currently trading 8% below its 50-day and down 21.89% year to date. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
With our financial system in turmoil, no one is paying attention to the fact that oil is down another $5 and change. As shown in the chart below, after being up 51.38% at the start of July, the commodity is now down on the year. As oil skyrocketed, so many companies lowered guidance recently after factoring in a large increase in energy costs. With oil now back to break even for the year, corporate profits should benefit. click to enlarge Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
With the bankruptcy of Lehman (LEH) and the turmoil at AIG (AIG), one would think that Financials would be the primary culprit behind today's early decline of 2.5% in the S&P 500. However, while the sector is playing a large role in today's decline (-3.6%), Energy stocks are actually the worst performers on the day with a decline of 4.3%. 
Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Judging by the performance of T. Boone Pickens' stock holdings at the end of the second quarter, it hasn't been a good couple of months. While there's no telling yet what Pickens has done in his BP Capital fund this quarter, if he has simply done nothing, the fund's equity holdings would be down 32.26% since the end of June. That's what happens when you run an energy fund and oil loses a third of its value in two months. As shown, SD is down the most at 62%, followed by BZP, FWLT and KBR (all down more than 50% in the second half of the year). Only one of BP Capital's holdings at the end of the second quarter is up this quarter, and it was the fund's smallest position (CLNE). As we wrote earlier, who knows what Pickens has done with his holdings this quarter, but it's hard to imagine that he's not suffering some big losses. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Today's release of the weekly oil inventories showed a larger than expected draw in crude stockpiles (-5,428K barrells vs. -3,500K estimate). Two months ago this type of news would have caused a sharp spike higher in crude oil prices. Today, this news and the announcement of an OPEC cut in output is only good for a gain of 8 cents. click to enlarge Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Even on a day when the Dow closed up nearly 300 points, the S&P 500 Energy sector still managed to close the day down. Yesterday's declines for the sector mark its 7th consecutive down day, which is just the 10th 7-day losing streak since we have daily sector prices going back to 1989. As shown in the table below, 5 out of the 9 prior losing streaks saw declines on day 8 as well. Following prior 7-day losing streaks, over the next week, the median change for the S&P 500 Energy sector has been -0.15%. Over the next month, the median change has been +2.6%. At some point, the knife has to hit the floor, right? Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Today's release of weekly inventories for energy related commodities showed that stockpiles were either inline with or lower than analysts were forecasting. As shown in the table below, natural gas stockpiles were inline with expectations, crude oil and distillates were lower than expected, and gasoline was slightly higher than forecasted. As the lower charts illustrate, natural gas and distillate inventories remain above average, while crude oil and gasoline inventories are still below average. While distillate inventories are above average, this year the build plateaued several weeks ahead of schedule. While these reports are generally bullish for energy commodities, this morning's article in the WSJ may cause traders to view the numbers with a more skeptical eye. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
We've compared the rallies of the tech and homebuilder bubbles with the rally in oil plenty of times here. Below we highlight the returns from trough to peak of the three asset classes during their respective bubbles. As shown, the Nasdaq went up 640% during its 1990s bubble, while the homebuilder stocks went up 839% during their 2000s bubble. From oil's bottom of $16.70 in November 2001 to its recent peak of $145.29 on July 3rd, the commodity rallied 770% -- right in between the rallies of the Nasdaq and homebuilder bubbles. Complete Story »
|
-
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
If there was one over-riding theme of the first half of this year, it was to go long energy and commodities and short financials. As we all know, however, the trade has completely unraveled since July, as oil and other commodities have been decimated. Now that the CRB index is in a bear market, analysts are coming to grips with the fact that earnings in the stocks in the energy sector may not be as robust as previously thought. In fact, for the first time this year, negative revisions in the energy sector have actually exceeded the pace of negative revisions in the financial sector. Complete Story »
|
|
|
|