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 FP Trading Desk submits: Canadian oil and gas companies are officially shark bait. And we’re not talking about the small and medium-sized shops. The biggies - think Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), EnCana Corp. (ECA), Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ), Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) and Nexen Inc. (NXY) - could all be targets for the super biggies, according to Terry Peters, an analyst at Canaccord Adams, riffing off an article in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. Mr. Peters said in a report last week: Complete Story »
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FP Trading Desk submits: Dramatic declines in the commodity markets the past few weeks have some comparing it to the epic asset revaluations of the late 1990s tech bubble, and plunging real estate prices more recently. Oil is down roughly 30% and natural gas is off about 45%. This has many investors turning their focus to Canada’s energy trust sector, wondering whether their distributions are safe and for how long. RBC Capital Markets said in a Sept. 11 report: Complete Story »
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 Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates) submits:  Startup for first finished product from the Horizon oil sands mine and upgrader apparently has slipped one quarter to the fourth quarter of 2008 for buy-recommended Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). That does not surprise us considering the complexity of giant energy supply projects and the intense activity in global engineering and construction.
Meanwhile, with stock price down sharply, new investment in CNQ is timelier. Released today, second quarter results displayed strength in heavy oil price relative to light oil with overall gains dampened by hedging. Actual sales for the 110,000 barrels daily Horizon facility should start next year though we have not included any in our estimates for the next twelve months ending June 30, 2009. Complete Story »
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David Hunkar submits: Canada is blessed with many natural resources, most of which it exports to other countries, including the U.S. (its largest trading partner). Some of the natural resources are minerals such as gold, uranium, or crude oil (from tar sand); timber is another example. Since Canada is heavily dependent on commodities, we can say that the Canadian economy is commodity-based. Unlike commodity-driven economies like Russia or Brazil, Canada has a stable political system, a western-style democracy, and is geographically closer to the U.S. Recently, as the price of crude oil rose, Canadian tar sands became even more valuable. In addition to Calgary, the demand for Canadian crude oil has created a few boomtowns like Fort McMurray in Northern Alberta. Sure, the price of oil fell the past few days, but I believe that this is only temporary. In the next few months, it may start to go back up again. An investor looking to add some stocks from the energy sector can look into the Canadian energy sector stocks that are listed below. Complete Story »
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Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates) submits: A decline in oil and gas stock prices that we believe is overdone relative to the price of oil may trigger more strategic acquisitions by well-capitalized buyers. When oil price pulled back in 1981 after a long rise, the megadeals began in earnest and continued for several years. Buyers could be among the largest in our coverage as well as non-U.S. entities not in our coverage. Targets could be any of the low McDep Ratio stocks, particularly those that are widely held. Large cap targets, also down the most from their highs, include buy recommendations XTO Energy (XTO), EOG Resources (EOG), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Anadarko (APC), Encana (ECA) and Suncor (SU). Meanwhile, considering that the median stock in Meter Reader is down 25% from its high, most of the damage has been done if we are on the way to a typical serious decline of a third. Complete Story »
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Ron Haruni submits:Warren Buffett and Bill Gates toured this week the Canadian Natural Resource Ltd’s (CNQ) Horizon oil sands project. The $8.7 billion development involves the extraction of oil sands reserves 70 km north of Fort McMurray, Province of Alberta. The men, according to Reuters, were given details on the Canadian oil industry by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). Greg Stringham, vice president of markets and fiscal policy at the association, said “they were asked to come up and do a short presentation”. Complete Story »
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 Davy Bui submits: The Wintergreen Fund, managed by David Winters, was fairly steady judging from its 13F filing. My spreadsheet is a little off as it seems some of the CUSP IDs were changed from last quarter so disregard the new positions shown in GLD & CNQ. - Winters opened only 1 new position, eBay (EBAY). I’ve seen some investors (value and otherwise) tout EBAY based on their superior market position, but a user backlash against some of the new policies and charges they’ve implemented building momentum. I know a few friends who do quite a bit of selling on eBay who aren’t happy with the service. Amazon’s (AMZN) marketplace is quickly establishing itself for resellers, though eBay probably still has an advantage with collectible items. How this affects their prospects going forward, I don’t know. But in general, I’ve always had a hard time with tech stocks and especially, with the disconnect between their high cash flow levels but relatively low earnings.
- Not much else of note other than building a position in General Dynamics (GD) and unwinding some of his short bet against financials.
Boone Pickens shows some of the cards in his hand via BP Capital’s Q2 13F filing and he was pretty much doing nothing but buying. Some have mentioned the big drop in his portfolio’s value the past quarter but smart investors know that if you have a winning hand, you put more money in the pot. Complete Story »
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 Steve Farrington submits: Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, ranked #1 and #3 richest in Forbes [respectively], took an unusual summer trip together - to northern Alberta on Wednesday to explore Canadian Natural Resources' (CNQ) multi-billion dollar oil-sands project.
The Horizon project is an “open pit mining strategy [which] will consist of mobile equipment and bitumen extraction facilities to mine and separate the raw bitumen from the oil sands. Canadian Natural will further upgrade the bitumen to a sweet synthetic crude oil using proven delayed coking and hydro-treating technologies” (CNRL). Complete Story »
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FP Trading Desk submits: Expect a short-term jump in oil prices to drive a recovery in recently-beaten down oil and gas stocks, says Canaccord Adams analyst Nick Majendie. In a follow-up to his strategy note last week, Mr. Majendie wrote: Complete Story »
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