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Mark Henwood submits: Equities and commodities all fell during the week ending November 14th. US REITs were particularly hard hit ([[RWR]] -18.5%). For a complete summary visit this returns page. Sustainable energy also fell sharply with only 10 companies in our indices advancing. Click to enlarge Complete Story »
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Mike Havrilla submits:
Despite a trio of downgrades since Halloween, shares of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) offer an excellent opportunity as a high beta buy if you believe yesterday's late-day market rally will continue. I bought some shares at $5.35 and for a while it looked poised to plunge much lower with the overall market until the massive, late-day rally led to double digit gains and saw the stock briefly trade over 7 bucks from an intra-day low around 5 bucks. Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: The China-based solar cell and module manufacturers are slowing down production in anticipation of slowing demand and falling prices, according to Wedge MKI, the Asia-based research arm of investment research boutique Wedge Partners. In a research note this morning, Wedge provided a rundown on the moves some of the companies in the industry are making in response to the rapidly shifting economic conditions, including much tighter credit markets, falling module and polysilicon prices and a sharp appreciation in the dollar. “Companies are doing their best to hold on while pricing falls apart, but market visibility is very poor,” Wedge reports. Here’s a rundown on the steps Wedge finds unfolding at some of the key players: Complete Story »
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Greg Weston submits:Long Solar President-Elect Obama and virtually all the Democrats who have won congressional races have promised to invest in clean energy. I have a somewhat perverse interest in watching out-of-state candidates’ campaign commercials. Something like 50% or more of Democrats’ ads feature these promises, together with pictures of windmills and gleaming solar panels on a sunny day. I expect that they will keep their word. It’s both good policy and good politics. Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: Solar stocks Tuesday have extended Monday’s torrid rally, apparently getting a boost from investors anticipating that a victory Tuesday for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will be good news for the alternative energy business. But before you jump in, you might want to think for a moment about what will actually transpire - and on what timetable. While it may be true in the long run that an Obama presidency will be good for solar shares, a change of administrations will not be a cure-all. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov Tuesday morning cautioned that investors should not expect any “instant gratification in terms of new goodies from Washington,” especially given that Congress has already approved an 8-year extension of the solar investment tax credit. Complete Story »
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Kelvin Schulle submits:Since I wrote "Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings" back on September 3rd, the solar sector had a massive selloff. My reasoning was based on the fact that oil peaked at $147 per barrel and also the solar energy demand may have peaked in Europe. Since then, the solar sector has been absolutely smashed by the market turmoil. First Solar (FSLR) was down over 70% from peak $330 to $95 a week ago. Suntech power (STP) was down from $90 to $11 during the same period of time. The same story for Sunpower Corp (SPWRA), some other small names are even worse, such as Solarfun (SOLF), Renesola (SOL), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Yingli Green (YGE), and China Sunergy (CSUN). Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: While solar stocks have plunged 60% over the last three months, there could be more downside ahead, Barclay’s solar analyst Vishal Shah warned this morning. In a series of research notes, Shah cautions that the solar sector financial reports for the remainder of the third quarter reporting period “could turn out to be disappointing as concerns over potential inventory build triggered by [the] credit environment and FX headwinds prompt companies to maintain a cautious outlook on Q4 and [first half 2009] earnings.” Complete Story »
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Mark Henwood submits: How epic has this correction been? The answer is worse than the 1987 programmatic crash (S&P -32%) but not as bad, to date, as the 1973 oil crisis (S&P -48%) or the dot-com bubble (S&P -49%). For an excellent graphic of these events and the current housing bubble (S&P -45%) visit here. But for sustainable energy the correction has been even more severe. Our graph from the October 7, 2007 S&P 500 peak to now shows the changes to the four sectors we have been tracking since the S&P peak. At their minimums the four indices were down between 65 - 80%. Complete Story »
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Richard Shaw (QVM Group) submits: We may be ready to enter a period of intensive private and public investment in alternative energy, but as of last week, the sun was certainly not rising over solar stocks. The theme may have legs eventually, but not right now. Some have predicted that Americans would lose their will to seek greater energy independence from foreign sources if oil prices declined significantly. Oil prices have come down a lot, and solar stocks have done poorly. Complete Story »
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Chris Cather submits:Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, reiterated his mantra last week in a New York Times op-ed: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There is no better time for green value investors to heed that advice than right now. But, with the market meltdown and recent solar sector downgrades by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and others, green investors might be turning green about now. Goldman downgraded both First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) and SunPower (NSDQ: SPWRA) and Canaccord Adams continued the carnage with JA Solar (NSDQ: JASO). Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: As the Solar Power International conference continued Wednesday in San Diego, solar stocks continue to lose ground in the face of ongoing concerns about both the ongoing credit crunch and the possibility of a steep drop in pricing in 2009. Deutsche Bank’s Steve O’Rourke observed in a research note Wednesday morning that while companies expect some negative impact from tighter credit in 2009, “quantification is presently impossible.” On pricing, he notes that most solar module companies continue to forecast a price decline in 2009 of under 10% - but he says that a drop of more than 20% is “increasingly likely.” Complete Story »
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David White submits:The VIX journeyed into the 70's last week. The SPY bounced off support in the $82 - $85 area. The Fed and the Treasury are both taking positive steps to stabilize the markets. Even the housing market showed solid results with a rise in the number of houses sold (albeit at lower prices). Citi dropped its suit to stop WFC from taking over Wachovia. This all tends to make one think there is a near term rebound in the making. If this in fact happens, what stocks do you want to be in? Below are some of my choices: Solar stocks: Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: Solar stocks traded sharply lower Tuesday morning after Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Molnar declared he has become cautious on the solar group, “as less generous subsidies combined with a wave of supply pose a real risk.” Molnar asserts in a research note that the risk of oversupply in the solar market “will soon become a reality as considerably less generous demand subsidies take hold just as a wave of supply and tight financing hit the market.” He thinks that “liberal subsidies of the past in markets like Germany and Spain are unlikely to be replicated in the future given fears of their ultimate cost in a bad world economy.” Complete Story »
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Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: What a difference two hours makes. The end-of-the-day stock market sell off that started with the House passage of the financial bailout bill sucked the solar stocks sharply lower. While the stocks had been trading higher earlier in the session, as some investors celebrated the inclusion in the bailout bill of an 8-year extension for solar investment tax credits, the shares then headed south in a hurry. First Solar (FSLR), for instance, dropped from $183 and change right after the vote to about $160, a drop of $23, or about 13%. In two hours. Immediately after the vote, the list of stocks looked like this: Complete Story »
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