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• As U.S. Financial Markets Circle the Drain, What Happens to Clean Energy?

  By Richard T. Stuebi As seen at Huffington Post An investment banker was quoted in the Financial Times as stating that the global financial market "changed more in the past 10 days than it had in the previous 70 years." Complete Story » Posted Thursday, October 02, 2008 3:04 AM Filed under: Cleantechblog

• Financial Markets Circle the Drain: Where Does That Leave Clean Energy?

  By Richard T. Stuebi An investment banker was quoted in Sunday's Financial Times as stating that the global financial market "changed more in the past 10 days than it had in the previous 70 years." Complete Story » Posted Monday, September 29, 2008 3:37 PM Filed under: ESLR, PBW, PBD, STP, FSLR, SOLF, Cleantechblog, TSL, CEG, LDK

• LEDs Rise as Biofuels Sink (Week Ending 9/19)

  Capping a crazy week, broad markets end up, while commodities retreated slightly. Camino's indices ended the week mixed amid highly volitile trading. Complete Story » Posted Monday, September 22, 2008 4:16 AM Filed under: VSE, CREE, Cleantechblog

• Energy Companies Follow the Big Pharma Model for R&D

  By Peter Fusaro With high energy prices, one would think that energy companies would be awash with cash and would be investing in their future. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. The US energy industry in particular is only spending $4 billion on research and development while making record tens of billions in profits. So, what’s wrong with this equation? As far as I know, only Chevron (CVX), Shell (RDS.A), BP (BP) and Conoco Phillips (COP) have active venture arms. Complete Story » Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 3:12 AM Filed under: COP, XOM, CVX, Cleantechblog, BP, RDS.A

• As Energy Stocks Get Clobbered, Look Out for Bargains

  By Mark Henwood As Energy Stocks get clobbered, Emerging markets (EEM),EAFA (EFA),and commodities (DJP) drop sharply also. Complete Story » Posted Monday, September 08, 2008 3:44 AM Filed under: PUW, PBW, PBD, TAN, Cleantechblog

• Solar's Hot Gain (Week Ending 8/22/08)

  By Mark Henwood Emerging markets, EAFA, and the US market (S&P 500) were little changed on the week, commodities (DJP) rose 2.8%. Sustainable energy stocks created some excitement but overall were mixed: Complete Story » Posted Tuesday, August 26, 2008 1:53 PM Filed under: STP, YGE, Cleantechblog, CSUN

• Solar & LEDs Shine Bright, BioFuel Energy Drags Biofuels Down (Wk ending 8/15)

  By Mark Henwood Emerging markets, EAFA, and commodities (DJP) fell while the US market (S&P 500) was flat.   Click to enlarge     While Biofuels is the fourth largest strategy behind Renewable Electricity, Solar, and LED-Lighting it highlighted an all too familiar risk for energy producers. Many energy producers seek to reduce their risk associated with volatility in commodity prices by entering into hedging strategies. The key point of these actives is to reduce risk, not profit from speculative positions. After all, the largest, professionally managed financial institutions are proof even the pros get burned by speculation and I certainly don't want any sustainable energy companies I invest in engaging in speculative positions. Apparently, even engaging in hedging involves a certain amount of skill. If management doesn't get it right the hedging strategy can wipe out the value of a company faster than the worst operational decisions. BioFuel Energy (BIOF) is a case in point. On Tuesday the company opened at USD 2.60/share. After reporting at 12:46 pm that it had insufficient current liquidity to cover USD 46 million in hedging losses on corn contracts, roughly equal to its market value, the stock started plunging 64% to close at USD 0.94/share. While the stock rebounded some late in the week, shareholders lost 38.5% of their value for the week. Coming after Aventine's (AVR) February problems with the not-so-safe auction rate securities, I hope management of biofuel companies devote enough attention to their financial dealings to avoid crises. Disclosure: None Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. Complete Story » Posted Monday, August 18, 2008 8:26 AM Filed under: PLUG, Cleantechblog, LDK, BIOF

• Sustainable Energy Indices Rise, LED-Lighting Suffers (Week Ending 8/1)

  By Mark Henwood EAFA fell 2.2%; Emerging Markets, S&P500, and commodities (DJP) treaded water. The two key strategies, Renewable Electricity and Solar, posted gains for the week. Complete Story » Posted Monday, August 04, 2008 4:28 AM Filed under: Cleantechblog, RBCN, ANDE, BLDP

• Sustainable Energy Indices Mixed; First Solar's Important Project (Wk Ending 7/25)

  By Mark Henwood   Emerging Markets, EAFA, and S&P500 all fell this week. Commodities (DJP) fell another 4.4% on top of the previous week's 7.8% decline.     Renewable Electricity suffered a modest loss for the week. One of the components, EarthFirst  [EF.TO], continued its steep decline losing another 20.9% on the week. Since the company appointed its new CEO on June 12 the stock has dropped 46% on thin volume. In the intervening period the company reported an approximate 10% increase in cost for its Dokie project, a reduction in the project's estimated energy of 2.3%, and delivery of 24 MW of wind turbines to the project site. Investors are betting the company lands its project financing and secures additional contracts in other solicitations. As I previously noted, project issues have magnified effect on company valuations in this strategy. Solar gave up 5.4% this week and is now down 34.4% for the year. But not all the companies are suffering the same decline. In particular, First Solar (FSLR) is only down 1.8% for the year and has now become 25% of the market cap of Camino's index. Does its technology warrant this dominant position in the strategy? Examining one of the company's recent projects sheds some light on the question. On July 10, 2008 the California Public Utilities Commission approved a 7.5 MW contract between First Solar's FSE Blythe project and Southern California Edison (EIX). Unfortunately much of the economic information was not disclosed but some key data can be gleaned from the record. First, the company is projecting a significant 27% capacity factor for the project, significantly higher than typical estimates for PV projects. But equally important is the company is pursing the development receiving a price at or below the "market reference price" which is based on a highly efficient modern thermal plant.   After accounting for some messy seasonal and time-of-use factors the project will receive approximately USD 0.14/kWh plus a 10% tax credit. If First Solar can make money at this project then it is very near the holy grail of grid parity. Maybe its dominant valuation makes sense and the company is becoming an execution risk on how fast it can grow. Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. He also is an investor in sustainable energy stocks and has positions in Renewable Electricity, including EF.TO. Complete Story » Posted Monday, July 28, 2008 2:41 AM Filed under: FSLR, Cleantechblog, EIX

• Sustainable Energy Indices Mixed as Commodities Retreat (Week Ending 7/18)

  By Mark Henwood  Emerging Markets, EAFA, and S&P500 all rose this week partially on reduced pressure on commodities (DJP) which fell 7.8% for the week.   Biofuels shares responded mid-week to news that Verasun (VSE) was keeping 330 MGY per year of new capacity idle. As I wrote in my post for the week ending June 13th, with tight margins it comes as no surprise that producers are reducing production plans . With ethanol consuming somewhere around 30% of corn supplies, the cost of corn should respond to a reduction in ethanol production. Reduced ethanol supplies should be supportive of stronger ethanol prices. At some point an equilibrium will be reached. Later in the week UBS upgraded the ethanol sector to a buy on "improving margins". VSE's price (and others) responded strongly gaining 21% on Friday and ending the week up a huge 49% at USD 6.12/share. With this big change I thought the margin on producing ethanol would have materially improved. True, corn has been dropping significantly since the start of July with the December contract closing Friday on the CBOT at USD 6.28/bushel. But ethanol has been falling also in July, with the December contract closing Friday at USD 2.36/ gallon leaving the "corn crush" margin at the same slim USD 0.2/ gallon it was in the middle of June when Verasun's stock price was below USD 5.0/ share. I'm not sure I understand the improving margin argument. Complete Story » Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2008 3:24 AM Filed under: VSE, PLUG, CREE, Cleantechblog, OESX